Polymeric MDI prices have risen across every major market since February 2026, and PricePedia's analysis concludes that feedstock cost alone does not explain the move. The Chinese FOB export price is up a cumulative 61% since February, the intra-EU customs price 43% and the US FOB export price close to 10%. European benzene rose approximately 30% in the second quarter against the first, exceeding EUR 1,000 per tonne in April before easing while remaining above pre-conflict levels. The larger factor was a change in the shape of supply: after the conflict with Iran and the disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabian exports fell from approximately 45,000 tonnes to just over 7,000 tonnes between the first and second quarters of 2026, while Chinese exports rose from approximately 116,000 tonnes to more than 204,000.
The trade data describes a substitution rather than a shortfall. PricePedia puts the Saudi contraction at more than 80% quarter on quarter and Chinese growth at close to 76% over the same period, so the tonnes that left the market from one origin arrived from another. In aggregate, on this reading, global availability held.
That matters because the export trade was already concentrated. In 2025 China was the world's largest polymeric MDI exporter at approximately 724,000 tonnes, over 16% of global trade, ahead of Belgium at around 15%, Germany at around 14% and South Korea at just over 10%. Saudi Arabia shipped approximately 404,000 tonnes, almost 10% of global trade, while EU member states together account for approximately half of global exports. The figures are drawn from ExportPlanning data.
PricePedia's conclusion is that the increase was not caused by physical scarcity. Benzene, the upstream input usually held responsible, rose about 30% in Europe quarter on quarter and passed EUR 1,000 per tonne in April, but the response in polymeric MDI was broader and sharper than feedstock cost would justify. Author Daniel Vito Lobasso attributes it instead to precautionary buying and inventory building under uncertainty, and reads isocyanate pricing generally as a response to perceived scarcity, plant availability and logistics rather than to production cost.
For a rigid systems producer this is the most cost-relevant series on the beat, since polymeric MDI is the isocyanate side of cold-chain formulations. Two things follow. Gulf-origin material became unreliable for a quarter because of a shipping route rather than a plant problem, which argues for keeping more than one origin qualified instead of assuming any single one is secure. And Chinese material has become the effective benchmark, which makes Chinese producers' price notices a signal to watch rather than a lagging indicator. It is also worth carrying into customer conversations that, on PricePedia's reading, an easing in crude or benzene does not automatically pull isocyanate quotations down. All the price series above are expressed in euros per tonne and need converting before they are set against dollar-denominated offers.